Early in the NBA season there are trends or players that might surprise you. Most teams have played at least 13 games, and there have been some standouts from players we may not have predicted to be this good.
No. 5 Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Barnes was taken fourth overall by the Raptors in 2021 and was named Rookie of the Year. It’s not that we didn’t think he’d be good, it was that the direction of the team was unclear and that might have hurt Barnes’ development. Plus they were going to make him full-time point guard this season under a new head coach. It seemed that he’d have a steep learning curve.
Through 14 games he’s having the best season of his career. He’s averaging 19 points, nearly nine rebounds, and nearly six assists per game on 47/38/75 shooting splits. He is seventh in the league in EPM at +5.6 and is one of only four players to be ranked in at least the 90th percentile in both offensive and defensive EPM.
No. 4 Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
He was selected right after Barnes in the 2021 draft and had a rough start to his career dealing with injuries and poor play. Not to mention he was joining an already crowded backcourt. His shooting has been awful, and he needed to find a way to contribute and earn more playing time.
Suggs has stepped up defensively and become the best defender on the Magic roster. The Magic are currently third in aDRTG, and Suggs is third in the league in defensive EPM.
No. 3 Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
The promising big man was taken 15th in the 2022 draft and played in 43 games last year, starting in 17. But he played the majority of the year without lead guard LaMelo Ball, who was dealing with an injury.
This season Ball and Williams have started together, and the big man’s numbers have gone up, courtesy of Ball’s elite passing.
Williams is averaging a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds per game and he’s converting 70 percent of his shot attempts.
No. 2 Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
A favorite of basketball hipsters, the third-year pro from Turkey is only 21 and has made a huge leap so far this season. He’s averaging 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists per game. He is 14th in EPM at +4.2 and he had a memorable matchup against LeBron James on Sunday.
No. 1 Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
This was never a question about talent. Holmgren was taken with the second overall pick in 2022. The question, as it is for most young players, is how long would it take him to become an impactful player? Someone that contributes to winning.
He’s averaging 17 points, nearly eight rebounds and two blocks per game on 56/46/90 shooting splits. That’s absurd efficiency for a rookie. The three-point shooting likely won’t last. But even if he drops to 38 percent from three, that’s excellent.
He leads all rookies in EPM at +5.4, and he’s one of the other four players to be ranked in at least the 90th percentile in both offensive and defensive EPM, joining Barnes, Joel Embiid and his teammate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
