The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year $700 million contract. It is the richest contract in sports history. But this is a bad deal for the Dodgers unless there’s a guarantee Ohtani remains an elite two-way superstar.
Ohtahni Is The Best Player In Baseball
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Ohtani is the best player in the game. A unique two-way superstar who can shut down a lineup and go 3-for-5 with a HR and five RBI.
He won his second unanimous MVP this past season leading MLB in WAR by almost two whole games over the No. 2 player in WAR, his new teammate Mookie Betts.
Ohtani posted .412/.644/1.066 OBP, SLG, and OPS percentages. Leading the league in the latter two and finishing second in OBP. He hit .304 and led MLB with 44 HRs and added 95 RBIs.
On the mound he was 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts and struck out 167 batters in 132 innings pitched and a 1.061 WHIP.
In his MLB career Ohtani is a four-time All-MLB, three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Award winner to go along with his two MVPs.
The Dodgers signed an incredible player.
But the contract is only truly worth it if the Dodgers can win a World Series with Ohtani and the best chance they have is if he is a dominant two-way player.
Ohtani had surgery on his pitching elbow in September, and while he’ll be ready to hit on Opening Day in 2024, he won’t be ready to pitch until Opening Day 2025. We also don’t know what kind of pitcher he’ll be coming off the surgery and he has a history of surgeries on his pitching arm.
$70 million a season for a DH, no matter how good, is a bad business deal.
The Deal Only Works If They Win
Ohtani’s presence will undoubtedly be a boon for the Dodgers, already among the most popular MLB franchises, and it will certainly generate income. Between jersey sales and more interest from the Japanese market, the Dodgers will see a jump in revenue.
Enough to justify a $700 million investment? Baseball players aren’t that popular relative to other professional athletes. A look at the Forbes most influential or richest athletes will tell you that. They don’t have the cachet that professional basketball and football players have in the United States.
The one thing that generates the kind of revenues to justify a $700 million investment is a World Series, probably multiple. Which is what the Dodgers are hoping for with this signing. For that to happen they need Ohtani to be the best version of himself as a pitcher and hitter.
Even still, in a sport like baseball, that’s no guarantee.
The Dodgers have won over 100 games in five of the past seven seasons and only won one World Series. Some of it was bad luck and some of it was bad play at an inopportune time.
Baseball is not as random as the NFL playoffs because you do play a best-of-three series in the wild card round, best-of-five in the divisional round, and best-of-seven in the League Championship Series and World Series.
But it’s not as much of a sure thing, insofar as it exists in sports, as the NBA’s best-of-seven series for all rounds, which all but guarantees the best teams advance to the conference finals and finals.
If your ace pitcher loses game one in a divisional round 1-0, you’re behind the eight ball. He pitched well, only giving up a run, but a combination of lesser pitchers somehow held you scoreless. Happens all the time in baseball.
In Ohtani’s case he could potentially make up for that loss at the plate in the next two games. But only if he’s able to be both an elite pitcher and hitter.
Assuming he’s healthy, Ohtani will rack up more awards, records and wins in Dodger blue. Will he ultimately lead them to a World Series title or two? Time will tell.
