Jocks vs. Nerds. Stats vs. Eye test. Whatever you want to call it. There is a war over the soul of basketball. In one camp you have quantitative data folks who break everything down based on numbers, and in the other you have “real basketball” people who study the game and can evaluate players and their play. But why does it have to be either or? Can’t we use both to understand this beautiful game?
Washington Wizards’ forward Kyle Kuzma recently weighed in on the debate with a tweet.
“Crazy that in the NBA smart people are now analytic guys and not people that can visually look at a hooper and say ‘oh that guys good.’”
Eyes And Numbers
Who defines good? Is a player who scores more better than a player who scores less but impacts winning to a greater degree?
What happens when we are observing something?
Our eyes capture images which shoot to our brain for processing. In that process all sorts of cognitive biases, memories, and acquired knowledge lead to interpretations of what we see.
In basketball the plays that get our neurons really firing are typically exciting scoring plays and amazing feats of athleticism by the world’s best players. While we may see things like screens, back cuts, and box outs, wide hands on a rotation or high hands on a shot contest, they don’t quite register the same way. But those things have value too.
In basketball you are trying to win possessions. Whether on the offensive side of the court or the defensive side. The team that wins the most possessions wins the game.
Analytics helps bring clarity to what our eyes see. It either supports or disproves it. There is no cognitive bias in analytics, no emotion. It’s just data.
Embracing Analytics Will Help You Enjoy The Game More
This past season, two of the best guards in the league by any measure were De’Aaron Fox and Donovan Mitchell. Our eyes told us that and the data backed it up. They both made All-NBA teams. Our eyes told us that and the numbers support it.
But what if someone told you, on a per 100 possession basis, Tyrese Haliburton was better than both players last year? Would you believe it?
Haliburton finished the year in the 97th percentile in EPM. Slightly ahead of Mitchell (96th percentile) and well ahead of Fox (91st percentile).
If you’re an NBA fan that should make you excited! You should be thinking “I need to watch more Indiana Pacers games.”
But that’s not what most fans do. Instead of being excited that the league is overflowing with talent, we use analytics and the eye test to get into debates about who is right and who is wrong. If analytics says Haliburton is better than Mitchell, that means fans of Mitchell hate Haliburton.
It’s really dumb how this impacts fans’ enjoyment of the game.
If you love NBA basketball and you want to enjoy it, use your eyes and check the data to see if it supports what your eyes are telling you. It doesn’t have to be either or. It’s more fun this way.
